One Foot Off the Cliff
Deployments May Be Too
Far Advanced to Stop Iraqi Invasion -- 250,000 U.S. Troops
Either Already There or Ready to Go
Possible Battle Strategy: Easy Military
That May Lead to a Global Uprising
by Michael C. Ruppert
[© Copyright 2002, From the Wilderness Publications,
www.copvcia.com. May be copied or distributed
for non-profit purposes only. MAY NOT be posted
in any Internet web
site without express written authorization.]
[Ed. Note: All research material used
in this story was compiled from open source material posted
on various Defense Department websites, from major media
sources and from other non-classified material. - MCR]
Aug. 21, 2002, 13:00 PDT (FTW) -- It may be too late for President George W. Bush to change his mind on the
invasion of Iraq. An analysis of troop deployments in
the region shows that the U.S. already has well over 100,000
military personnel in as many as 11 countries around Iraq
[see map]. Additional analysis shows that another 100,000
or more crack assault and support personnel have just
completed a major training exercise for a hypothetical
conflict that bears a strong resemblance to Iraq. These
troops can be ready to fight in the region on 96-hour
notice. "Stealth" mobilizations of Reserve and
National Guard units, begun after Sept. 11, also indicate
that as many as another 150,000 military personnel can
be deployed within days or weeks of an initial surprise
on Map to enlarge)
News reports from other sources confirm the following
report by the Asia Times on Aug. 19. "Since March 12,000
troops have been added to Kuwait (8,000) and Qatar (4,000)
and 5,000 Brits to Oman, bringing the April/May total
to 62,000. In late June, the Turkish foreign ministry
reported heavy air traffic of U.S. military transport
planes aimed at increasing the number of U.S. troops in
Southern Turkey from 7,000 to 25,000 by the end of July.
Also in June, a contingent of 1,700 British Royal Marines
were re-deployed from Afghanistan to Kuwait and a 250-man,
highly specialized German NBC (nuclear-biological-chemical)
warfare battalion equipped with "Fuchs" (fox) armored
vehicles has been in Kuwait since early this year.
"An additional 2,400 U.S. troops are deployed in Jordan
and, according to the Jordanian news agency Petra, are
being reinforced by another 4,000 arriving since Aug.
12 at Aqaba for joint exercises with the Jordanian Army.
Already, 1,800 U.S. troops (mostly Special Forces) are
inside Iraq, at least since the end of March and, in fact,
units there were visited two months ago by CIA director
George Tenet during a side trip from Israel and Palestine.
Between another 2,000 and 3,000 U.S. troops are in semi-permanent
deployment in the Negev and Sinai deserts in accordance
with old international agreements. On Aug, 9, the Turkish
daily Hurriyet reported that 5,000 Turkish troops had
entered northern Iraq and taken over the Bamerni airbase
north of Mosul. These numbers add up to about 105,000
U.S. and allied troops on bases surrounding and inside
All told, including foreign troops,
there are potentially 400,000 military personnel that
are either in the theater of operations, ready to go,
or deployable on very short notice. There are many other
units that have gone into stealth mode and cannot be located.
These advance deployments indicate that the Bush Administration
likely committed itself to the invasion many months ago.
One military expert thinks that the invasion of Iraq
and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein will be a cakewalk.
But, as is shown by recent outcries from around the civilized
world, the political and economic price might spell the
end of U.S world leadership and a particularly nasty economic
retaliation against a fragile U.S. economy. As one example
Iran, now totally surrounded by U.S.-led forces, announced
on Aug. 20 that it was considering dropping the dollar
as its currency for oil pricing. If the world follows
suit, it will spell the end of dollar hegemony and all
that it means to the U.S. economy. On Aug. 20, the Financial
Times reported that wealthy Saudi investors had withdrawn
as much as $200 billion from U.S. banks.
THE DOOR KICKERS
"Millennium 2002," billed as one of the largest war
gaming exercises in recent history, took place in and
around California's Ft. Irwin from July 24 through Aug.
9. Although the classified war scenario was ostensibly
a look at a potential conflict in the year 2007, the way
the exercises were conducted, right down to maps displayed
on the Ft. Irwin website, looked remarkably similar to
a mock invasion of Iraq. Indeed one of the maps used and
displayed on the website, when enlarged, proved to be
of the Az Zubayr prison outside of Basra, Iraq.
An estimated 100,000-plus military personnel from all
services, some operating from aircraft carriers such as
the Constellation and surrounding Marine, Navy, Air Force
and Army installations supported the mock battle. Units
on the ground consisted of approximately 13,500 crack
Army mechanized infantry, armor, artillery, airborne and
Special Operations Command personnel including SEALs,
who fought a simulated war in desert camouflage uniforms
in searing desert heat. The geographic location of the
support bases from which air strikes and resupply missions
were flown in California, Arizona, Nevada and elsewhere
correspond roughly in geographic distance to the actual
positioning of military installations throughout the Middle
East that would be used to support a U.S. invasion of
That means America's premier units are acclimatized
and have tested all of their equipment, especially the
new Stryker Infantry Assault Vehicle, before the invasion
and have completed an actual dry run. Recent operational
reports, as reported in the New York Times on Aug. 18,
state that active duty combat units could be "airlifted
and ready for action in 96 hours."
THE HIDDEN MOBILIZATION OF THE
An analysis of Reserve and National Guard call-ups since
9-11 shows that preparations for an Iraqi invasion have
been underway possibly for as long as ten months by means
of so-called "stealth deployments." Although Defense Department
announcements have recently indicated a drop in the total
number of reserves mobilized, it is important to note
that cutbacks are from "military operational specialties"
that are not critical to Iraqi combat operations. It's
Below is a list of the units identified as having taken
part in Millennium 2002, and the Reserve and National
Guard units that are likely to participate in the conflict.
In conjunction with the number of bases and military deployments
already positioned in the Persian Gulf region [see map],
it is probable that as many as 250,000 U.S. military personnel
are already in the region or are trained, equipped and
committed to the invasion of Iraq. This invasion will
in all likelihood happen in mid- to late-September and
barring miraculous political intercession, certainly before
the November elections.
The Bush Administration already has one foot off of
the cliff. Although it might be possible to call back
the dogs of war, the dogs will be very unhappy if they
have to come home without eating. And President Bush will
be an impotent political liability.
GROUND UNITS PARTICIPATING IN MILLENNIUM 2002
82nd Airborne Division
101st Air Mobile Division
Special Operations Command,
JFK Special Warfare Center
Operations Aviation Regiment
Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command
U.S. Army III Corps (Armor,
- 1st Air Cavalry, Heavy Armored
- 21st Cavalry Brigade
- 31st Air Defense Artillery Brigade
- 13th COSCOM Logistics and Support
- 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment
- 4th Infantry Division
- 3rd Signal Bde.
- III Armor Corps Artillery
3rd Brigade/ 2nd Infantry
Division (Stryker Assault Teams, Ft. Lewis)
The total number of estimated personnel in these assault
forces and their support units is approximately 100,000.
Other military elements from all over the country deployed
and tested new high-tech battlefield systems and communications
equipment. Confirmed reports indicate that microwave weapons
will be deployed during the invasion.
This number does not include support and transport units
from other services, the aircraft carrier Constellation
as reported by Globalsecurity.org, or air support missions.
It is estimated that three additional carrier battle groups
will participate in the invasion. Increased air operations
activity were confirmed at bases in California, Arizona
and Nevada. This conforms with Millennium 2002's self-reporting
on the Ft. Irwin website at http://www.irwin.army.mil.
RESERVE AND NATIONAL GUARD MOBILIZATIONS
Listed below are the Reserve and National
Guard combat and support units likely to be used in an
Iraqi invasion that have been mobilized since 9-11. These
mobilized personnel are for the most part experienced
veterans. Various numbers of personnel have been activated
from each of these units and they likely represent a core
cadre, which in the event of a full mobilization could
have the complete units ready for combat in a short period
of time. All data is current as of Aug. 7.
Wings (7,493 personnel)
Wings (9,439 personnel)
Group Wings (401 personnel)
2 Bomb Wings
(B1B) (218 personnel)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 (52 personnel)
Boat Squadron -- Team 1 (18 personnel)
Activity, Bahrain (53 personnel)
Boat Units (89 personnel)
Undersea Warfare Units (113 personnel)
Craft Units (74 personnel)
Division Support (105 personnel)
Marine Division (976 personnel)
Marine Division (1,003 personnel)
Division (49 personnel, most likely headquarters staff)
Forces Group (941 personnel)
Forces Group (711 personnel, plus an undetermined additional
number announced in a call-up on Aug. 20)
Regiment -- Alabama (209 personnel)
Artillery -- Arizona (125 personnel)
Force), 11th Armored Cavalry -- California (125 personnel)
-- Kentucky (159 personnel)
Artillery/29th Division -- Maryland (331 personnel)
104th Armored Regiment -- Pennsylvania (304 personnel)
103rd Armored Regiment -- Pennsylvania (541 personnel)
Battalion -- Louisiana (515 personnel)
Battalion -- Kentucky (300 personnel)
Battalion -- Pennsylvania (223 personnel)
Artillery -- Virginia (165 personnel)
-- Texas (629 personnel)
145th Field Artillery -- Vermont (206 personnel)
1st Battalion/213th Air Defense Artillery -- Pennsylvania
Total for these call-ups:
There has also been a heavy call-up of naval reserve
units from the construction battalions and beach units,
as well as 31 separate medical units from all services
involving 602 personnel.
HOW THE INVASION WILL OCCUR
Retired Army Special Forces Master Sgt. Stan Goff, who
taught military science at West Point, thinks the invasion
and overthrow of Saddam Hussein will be easily accomplished.
Iraqi military power is a shadow of what it was in 1991.
"If they go, Seal Team 6 will go too, along with the
Army's door-busters. They'll hit key communications,
command and control targets in the city, as the 75th conducts
two to three airfield seizures, whereupon they pour in
conventionals onto the airheads and push out the perimeters.
The set up folks like the 101 (a heliborne outfit), will
begin coordinated attacks on light targets, and strongpoint
lines of communication. Armor will crawl overland
for eventual link-up, after the bombers make them a road.
The Marines will probably forego beach assaults, with
maybe one or two exceptions, and they'll be used to open
up non-existent defenses, then pull glorified guard duty
for a year at a time. Expect massive air, with massive
civilian casualties, as prep. The hi-tech weapons
are only toys.
"This will be a walk-through if it happens. The
Iraqi forces are not only technologically under-gunned,
they are poorly trained and unmotivated, and their doctrine
is an anachronism.
"War-gaming here: If I were defending the
place, I would stand down the conventionals, let them
blend back into the population, and train up a thousand
two-man sniper teams, and deploy them like a "go"
game throughout the urban areas. Then arm the masses
with light weapons and grenades. Everywhere anyone
goes, they stand to be triangulated: single shots,
low signature, hard to acquire a target. Single-casualty
incidents and a lot of bad nerves. That's a morale
buster that provokes over-reaction, which in turn provokes
popular hatred. Slow boil escalation, with the invader
tied to expensive fixed installations, where he loses
the battlefield initiative. I would decentralize
the command structure, and issue broad strategic guidance
every month or so through totally non-tech communication. About
a year of that and you can spell quagmire with a capital
"Q." There would be no way to ever regain
the initiative. But Saddam can't do that.
"There are four Arabs I would not want to be right
now: King Fahd, Prince Abdullah, Yasser
Arafat, or Hosni Mubarak. All are perceived
as U.S. flunkies, and that's not a great thing right now."
It is foreseeable that Saddam Hussein's bluster, ego
and command style will not permit him to do anything but
take the field for a short time and then either be killed
or take flight like so many other petty tyrants of recent
history. The difference with Saddam is that much of the
world might willingly receive him. The nations of Indonesia
and Malaysia with the largest Muslim populations in the
world are distinct possibilities.
Only a few have seen the potential and horrible repercussions
of a unilateral U.S. invasion of Iraq. As the reality
of the Hubbert curve and the end of the age of oil start
to become unavoidable realities, desperation moves that
risk Armageddon and global holocausts of both the military
and economic variety will, and must, eventually become
It appears as if the cowboys in the White House have
made their decision and all of us wait, with baited breath,
to see for whom the bells toll.
POSTSCRIPT: As we go
to press we note the publication of a large story in the
Washington Post headlined, "Al Q'aeda Presence in
Iraq reported." The story by Bradley Graham opened
with the lead, "At least a handful of ranking members
of al Qaeda have taken refuge in Iraq, U.S. intelligence
officials said yesterday. Their presence would complicate
U.S. efforts against the terrorist network's leadership
but also would give the Bush administration another rationale
for possible military action against the Iraqi government."
[Special thanks to an anonymous Vietnam-era veteran
of the 10th Special Forces Group for his invaluable research