SAIC'S Robert Hirsch on Peak Oil

By zmetro.com
October 27, 2006

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Defense & The National Interest:
10/24/06 Peaking of world oil production, an update by Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor, SAIC:

In-depth introduction to the issue and its complexities. Prepared for the Atlantic Council, 23 October 2006 (735 KB PDF)
Brief overview of the major issues. To be presented at "Engineering Sustainability in the Global Enterprise" at the University of Wisconsin, November 30 - December 1, 2006 (189 KB PDF)

[This is a chilling reality. One of the most powerful ruling elite groups is likely to buy an enormous chunk of the American print media. This group also happens to be one of the lynchpins of the military-industrial complex. All the more reason for awake Americans to get their news from alternative sources.—CB]

Carlyle Group reportedly among possible bidders for Tribune Co.

by Washington Business Journal
http://www.zmetro.com/archives/006449.php
October 23, 2006

The Tribune Co., the embattled publisher of the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune, is mulling an outright sale of the company, asking private-equity firms, including one based in Washington, to submit nonbinding indications of interest by the end of the month, according to a Monday report from The Wall Street Journal.
According to the report, three groups have emerged as possible bidders:

D.C.-based Carlyle Group;
Madison Dearborn Partners, Providence Equity Partners, and Apollo Management;
Thomas H. Lee Partners and Texas Pacific Group.

At the moment, it is unclear whether Carlyle would bid alone or join with a group of buyers.

The report said that some bidders think the Chandler family, the largest shareholder in Tribune after the purchase of Los Angeles' Times Mirror in 2000, would accept a per-share buyout bid in the mid-$30s.

In addition to the Times and Tribune, Chicago-based Tribune Co. (NYSE: TRB) owns Newsday, the Chicago Cubs and 25 television stations.

Morales firm on deadline

President Evo Morales yesterday declared that Bolivia must not back down from an October-28 deadline to complete the nationalization of its oil and gas industry.

by Washington Business Journal http://washington.bizjournals.com/washington/stories/2006/10/23/daily12.html
October 23, 2006

Morales nationalized the South American country’s petroleum reserves by presidential decree on May 1, giving foreign companies six months to cede control of their Bolivian operations to the state or leave the country.

As the October 28 deadline approaches, however, none of the international energy companies operating in Bolivia — which include Brazilian state-run giant Petrobras, the French company Total SA, The Spanish-Argentine company Repsol YPF and British Gas — have yet signed a new contract with Morales’ government.

‘‘Bolivian rules must be respected,’’ the president said at a yesterday press conference, referring to the deadline set out in his nationalization decree, but added, ‘‘We are open to negotiations’’ with the foreign companies.

Morales said that he met Monday with government officials in charge of the nationalization process and said they have developed ‘‘a formula for all the companies’’ which they have brought to the ongoing talks.

‘‘We decided in a meeting this morning that we would respect our supreme decree,’’ the president said.

TREASURY'S PAULSON PLAYS WITH THE PLUNGE PROTECTORS

By JOHN CRUDELE
new york post
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10262006/business/treasurys_paulson_p
lays_with_the_plunge_protectors_business_john_crudele.htm
October 26, 2006

Someone - and I don't know who - wants us all to know that since July Henry Paulson, the new secretary of the U.S. Treasury, has spent a lot of time on a little known Washington operation called the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.

That was the major message in a prominent piece this past Monday in The Wall Street Journal.

The big mystery is why do these people want us to know this? And why now? I wrote about the Working Group on Financial Markets back in June when Paulson left Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs to accept the top job at Treasury.

As I documented in a series of half a dozen columns, the mysterious Working Group had been formed in 1988 by an executive order signed by President Reagan and was manned by the heads of various stock exchanges and top government officials in charge of those markets.

The group was supposed to - ya' know - solve financial problems, although the scope of its authority and its powers were never clearly defined.

The group soon became known as the Plunge Protection Team, and for those who were following its stealthy pursuits, the Working Group seemed to be using a blueprint set down by a former Federal Reserve official named Robert Heller.

Soon after Heller had left his government job in 1989 he gave a widely disbursed speech proposing that the Fed be given authority to rig the stock market in case of emergencies.

The Plunge Protection Team - a. k. a. Working Group - probably remained mostly dormant during the good years. But there were sneaking suspicions that it came out of its shell a couple of times, especially after 9/11.

So it's interesting that now - seemingly out of the blue and far removed from any obvious crisis - Paulson is activating the Plunge Protection Team and someone wants us to know about it.

The Journal's Monday piece started: "With just two years to make his mark, new Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is focusing much of his attention on making American financial markets more competitive . . .

"Since taking the reins in July, the Wall Street veteran has reinvigorated the President's Working Group on Financial markets, which had languished." The article went on to say that before Paulson's arrival, the group met every few months, and sometimes only once a quarter. Now Paulson is insisting that it meet every six weeks.

Among other things, Paulson and the Plunge Protection gang discuss the problems that might occur with hedge funds and derivatives, plus the "government's ability to respond to a financial crisis," according to a source quoted by the paper.

Since the Federal Reserve is the group that would lower interest rates in an emergency, the Plunge Protectors would probably be the ones who'd fix the problem. In other words, they'd throw money at it.

Stocks have been moving steadily upward since July, when Paulson took over the Plunge Protection Team (and the Treasury). And one of the reasons could be that - as I mentioned back then - there is less risk in stocks if the government is providing a safety net.

Less risk, that is, until something bad happens.

Venezuela economy to grow 6 percent in 2007, finance minister says

The Associated Press
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2006
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/27/business/LA_FIN_Venezuela_Economy.php

CARACAS, Venezuela Venezuela's oil-fueled economy will slow down slightly next year, expanding by about 6 percent following expected growth of 9 percent this year, the finance ministry said on Thursday.

High oil prices have helped Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, sustain strong economic growth in recent years.

Finance Minister Nelson Merentes was quoted by the state news agency as saying that economic models indicate, "growth will be sustained in 2007 and vigorous in 2008."

Merentes comments came as he spoke to a congressional finance commission on the country's 2007 budget.

The government is proposing a 2007 budget of about US$53.5 billion, equal to about 33 percent of Venezuela's gross domestic product.

It has based its budget on an average oil price of US$29 a barrel — far below this year's average of US$58 a barrel.

It also includes increased spending on state social programs.

Merentes added that unemployment is expected to decline and that inflation will stay within 10 percent to 12 percent. Inflation in 2005 was 14.4 percent.

In Venezuela, the government is the country's largest employer and obtains the bulk of its revenues from oil income.

[A special report by Narco News Editor, Al Giordano on the bloodshed in Oaxaca as people are assassinated, wounded, and disappeared as a result of the Mexican government’s retaliation against striking teachers.—CB]

Brad Will, New York Documentary Filmmaker and Indymedia Reporter, Assassinated by Pro-Government Gunshot in Oaxaca While Reporting the Story
Photographer Oswaldo Ramirez of the Daily Milenio Wounded in Attack by Shooters for Ulises Ruiz Ortiz in Santa Lucia del Camino

By Al Giordano
The Other Journalism with the Other Campaign in Chihuahua
October 27, 2006
http://www.narconews.com/Issue43/article2223.html

Brad Will, 36, a documentary filmmaker and reporter for Indymedia in New York, Bolivia and Brazil, died today of a gunshot to the chest when pro-government attackers opened fire on a barricade in the neighborhood of Santa Lucia del Camino, on the outskirts of Oaxaca, Mexico. He died with his video camera in his hands.

Brad went to Oaxaca in early October to document the story that Commercial Media simulators like Rebecca Romero of Associated Press distort instead of report: the story of a people sick and tired of repression and injustice, who take back the government that rightfully is theirs. In that context, his assassination is also a consequence of what happens when independent media must do the work that Big Media fails to do: to tell the truth. My friend and colleague since 1996 when we labored together at 88.7 FM Steal This Radio on New York’s Lower East Side, I bumped into him again in Bolivia in 2004 during a public reception held by the Narco News School of Authentic Journalism, and again on the Yucatán peninsula last January where he came to cover the beginnings of the Zapatista Other Campaign – Brad died to bring the authentic story to the world.

Brad went to Oaxaca in early October knowing, assuming and sharing the risks of reporting the story. His final published article, on October 17, titled “Death in Oaxaca,” reported the assassination of Alejandro García Hernández on the barricades set up by the Popular Assembly of the Peoples of Oaxaca (APPO, in its Spanish initials). Brad wrote:

“…went walking back from alejandros barricade with a group of supporters who came from an outlying district a half hour away—went walking with angry folk on their way to the morgue—went inside and saw him—havent seen too many bodies in my life—eats you up—a stack of nameless corpes in the corner—about the number who had died—no refrigeration—the smell—they had to open his skull to pull the bullet out—walked back with him and his people

“…and now alejandro waits in the zocalo—like the others at their plantones—hes waiting for an impasse, a change, an exit, a way forward, a way out, a solution—waiting for the earth to shift and open—waiting for november when he can sit with his loved ones on the day of the dead and share food and drink and a song—waiting for the plaza to turn itself over to him and burst—he will only wait until morning but tonight he is waiting for the governor and his lot to never come back—one more death—one more martyr in a dirty war—one more time to cry and hurt—one more time to know power and its ugly head—one more bullet cracks the night—one more night at the barricades—some keep the fires—others curl up and sleep—but all of them are with him as he rests one last night at his watch…”

Last September 26, Brad, on his way to Mexico, wrote me:

“hey al

it brad from nyc—it would be great to get yr narco contacts in oaxaca—i am headed there and want to connect with as many folks as posible—are you in df?—i should be stopping though there and it would be great

to go out for a drink

solid

brad”

Knowing of Brad’s hard luck covering other stories (he had been beaten by police in New York and in Brazil doing this important but dangerous work), his difficulty with the Spanish language, and of the greater risk for independent reporters who haven’t been embedded over time (and thus known by the people) in Oaxaca, I pleaded with him not to go, to instead go to Atenco and report on the story there of the arrival of Zapatista comandantes:

“Our Oaxaca team is firmly embedded. There are a chingo of other internacionales roaming around there looking for the big story, but the situation is very delicate, the APPO doesn’t trust anyone it hasn’t known for years, and they keep telling me not to send newcomers, because the situation is so fucking tense… If you are coming to Mexico, I would much more recommend your hanging around DF-Atenco and reporting that story which is about to begin. The APPO is (understandably) very distrustful of people it doesn’t already know. And we have enough hands on deck there to continue breaking the story. But what is about to happen in Atenco-DF needs more hands on deck.”

Brad replied that same night, undeterred:

“hey

thanks for the quick get back—i have a hd professional camera—i have heard reports about the level of distrust in oax and it is disconcerting—i think i will still go—i wont tell them you sent me and i am open to other suggestions on how to spend my time—i dont know what is happening in atenco in the coming days—i may connect with la otra capitulo dos somewhere along the way—great to hear from you—do you have a cell / phone number?

solidaridad

b rad”

I was not surprised that he decided to go to Oaxaca anyway. Brad had always taken risks: whether riding freight train box cars across the North American plain, or bunkering in his Fifth Street squat in 1996 when police and the wrecking ball invaded, his life had been one of courage. I gave him my cell phone number in case of emergency. He wrote back on October 7, three weeks ago:

“hey al

brad here—thanks for the contacts and info—i landed in df feeling

pretty ill and then came straight to oax and am plugged in—if you want to share your contacts down here it would be very helpful—i think I will stay down here for a month—nancy said you had a contact with a human rights lawyer who might help journalists not get deported – please help me with that information as well—i know you are busy and look forward to seeing more of your work

peace

b rad”

In those emails are the words of a valiant compañero who, knowing full well that this story could be his last, decided to share the risks with the people whose cause he reported.

Also sharing the risks today in Santa Lucia del Camino, Oaxaca was photographer Oswaldo Ramírez of the daily Milenio, wounded by gunfire. It was Milenio reporter Diego Enrique Osorno who confirmed the news of Brad’s death at 4:30 this afternoon. He also said that in another corner of the city, outside the state prosecutor’s office, gunmen fired at other APPO members, that three were wounded, and that one schoolteacher is reported dead, but was unable so far to confirm that report.

Brad Will was known and liked throughout the hemisphere, and in its media centers from New York to Sao Paulo to Mexico City. Tonight his body lies in the same Oaxaca morgue he visited and wrote about last week. He will not go silently into the long night of repression that the illegitimate governor Ulises Ruiz Ortiz, President Vicente Fox and his illegitimate successor Felipe Calderon have created in Oaxaca, and, indeed, in so much of Mexico. It was inevitable that soon an international reporter would join the growing list of the assassinated under the repressive regimes of Mexico (others had already been raped and beaten in Atenco, only to be deported from the country last May). Tonight it was Brad, doing the responsible and urgent work, video camera in hand, of breaking the Commercial Media blockade.

Speaking at a public meeting of the Other Campaign in Buaiscobe, Sonora, when the news came in about Brad’s death, Zapatista Subcomandante Insurgente Marcos, upon receiving a briefing of the day’s events in Oaxaca, told the public and the press:

“We know that they killed at least one person. This person that they killed was from the alternative media that are here with us. He didn’t work for the big television news companies and didn’t receive pay. He is like the people who came here with us on the bus, who are carrying the voices of the people from below so that they would be known. Because we already know that the television news companies and newspapers only concern themselves with governmental affairs. And this person was a compañero of the Other Campaign. He also traveled various parts of the country with us, and he was with us when we were in Yucatán, taking photos and video of what was happening there. And they shot him and he died. It appears that there is another person dead. The government doesn’t want to take responsibility for what happened. Now they tell us that all of the people of Oaxaca are mobilizing. They aren’t afraid. They are mobilizing to take to the streets and protest this injustice. We are issuing a call to all of the Other Campaign at the national level and to compañeros and compañeras in other countries to unite and to demand justice for this dead compañero. We are making this call especially to all of the alternative media, and free media here in Mexico and in all the world.”

Tonight, from the Oaxaca City Morgue, Brad Will shouts “Ya Basta!” – Enough Already! – to the death and suffering imposed (as Brad, a thoughtful and serious anarchist, understood) by an economic system, the capitalist system. His death will be avenged when that system is destroyed. And Brad Will’s ultimate sacrifice exposes the Mexican regime for the brutal authoritarian violence that the Commercial Media hides from the world, and thus speeds the day that justice will come from below and sweep out the regimes of pain and repression that system requires. Brad gave his life tonight so that you and I could know the truth. We owe him to act upon it, and to share the risks that he took. Goodbye, old friend. Your sacrifice will not be in vain.

Update, 10:30 p.m. Oaxaca: The Popular Assembly of the Peoples of Oaxaca (APPO) has confirmed that schoolteacher Emilio Alfonso Fabián has died from three bullet wounds after an attack by shooters for Ulises Ruiz Ortiz outside the state government palace.

Kristin Bricker reported for this story from Sonora

The answer lies in his suggestions for mitigation options:

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

-Heavy oil / oil sands

-Coal Liquefaction-Gas-To-Liquids (GTL)

-Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)

Why these? There’re liquid fuels & ready forImplementation

Electric power of little help in the short term—JO]

SAIC'S Robert Hirsch on Peak Oil