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How Long Can the World Feed Itself?
By Gwynne Dyer
Energy bulletin
October 28, 2006
http://www.energybulletin.net/21736.html
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
We are still living off the proceeds of the Green Revolution, but that hit diminishing returns twenty years ago. Now we live in a finely balanced situation where world food supply just about meets demand, with no reserve to cover further population growth. But the population will grow anyway, and the world's existing grain supply for human consumption is being eroded by three different factors: meat, heat and biofuels.
For the sixth time in the past seven years, the human race will grow less food than it eats this year. We closed the gap by eating into food stocks accumulated in better times, but there is no doubt that the situation is getting serious. The world's food stocks have shrunk by half since 1999, from a reserve big enough to feed the entire world for 116 days then to a predicted low of only 57 days by the end of this year.
That is well below the official safety level, and there is no sign that the downward trend is going to reverse. If it doesn't, then at some point not too far down the road we reach the point of absolute food shortages, and rationing by price kicks in. In other words, grain prices soar, and the poorest start to starve.
The miracle that has fed us for a whole generation now was the Green Revolution: higher-yielding crops that enabled us to almost triple world food production between 1950 and 1990 while increasing the area of farmland by no more than ten percent. The global population more than doubled in that time, so we are now living on less than half the land per person than our grandparents needed. But that was a one-time miracle, and it's over. Since the beginning of the 1990s, crop yields have essentially stopped rising.
The world's population continues to grow, of course, though more slowly than in the previous generation. We will have to find food for the equivalent of another India and another China in the next fifty years, and nobody has a clue how we are going to do that. But the more immediate problem is that the world's existing grain supply is under threat.
One reason we are getting closer to the edge is the diversion of grain for meat production. As incomes rise, so does the consumption of meat, and feeding animals for meat is a very inefficient way of using grain. It takes between eleven and seventeen calories of food (almost all grain) to produce one calorie of beef, pork or chicken, and the world's production of meat has increased fivefold since 1950. We now get through five billion hoofed animals and fourteen billion poultry a year, and it takes slightly over a third of all our grain to feed them.
Then there's the heat. The most visible cause of the fall in world grain production -- from 2.068 billion tonnes in 2004 to 2.038 billion tonnes last year and a predicted 1.98 billion tonnes this year -- is droughts, but there are strong suspicions that these droughts are related to climate change.
Moreover, beyond a certain point hotter temperatures directly reduce grain yields. Current estimates suggest that the yield of the main grain crops drops ten percent, on average, for every one degree Celsius that the mean temperature exceeds the optimum for that crop during the growing season. Which may be why the average corn yield in the US reached a record 8.4 tonnes per hectare in 1994, and has since fallen back significantly.
Finally, biofuels. The idea is elegant: the carbon dioxide absorbed when the crops are grown exactly equals the carbon dioxide released when the fuel refined from those crops is burned, so the whole process is carbon-neutral. And it would be fine if the land used to grow this biomass was land that had no alternative use, but that is rarely the case.
In South-East Asia, the main source of biofuels is oil palms, which are mostly grown on cleared rainforest. In the United States, a "corn rush" has been unleashed by government subsidies for ethanol, and so many ethanol plants are planned or already in existence in Iowa that they could absorb the state's entire crop of corn (maize, mealies). In effect, food is being turned into fuel -- and the amount of ethanol needed to fill a big four-wheel-drive SUV just once uses enough grain to feed one person for an entire year.
There is a hidden buffer in the system, in the sense that some of the grain now fed to animals could be diverted to feed people directly in an emergency. On the other hand, the downward trend in grain production will only accelerate if it is directly related to global warming. And the fashion for biofuels is making a bad situation worse.
It's only in the past couple of centuries that a growing number of countries have been able to stop worrying about whether there will be enough food at the end of the harvest to make it through to next year. The Golden Age may not last much longer.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We linked to this article a couple of weeks ago, but now republish in full with Gwynne's permission.
Gwynne Dyer is a London-based author, independent journalist, and award winning radio and film documentary maker. His articles are published in 45 countries.
www.gwynnedyer.net
NOTE: Dave Matthews notes that the 2004 and 2005 grain production figures looked incorrect.
I've changed 2.68 billion to 2.068 billion and 2.38 to 2.038, which more or less matches latest FAO data. Slightly different figures are cited Lester Brown:
"The 2006 world grain harvest of 1,984 million tons, estimated by the USDA in its June crop report, is down 24 million tons from last year, or roughly one percent. It is down three percent from the historical high of 2,044 million tons produced in 2004."
(www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006.htm)
You can keep track of latest FAO estimates at their Global Food Outlook:
www.fao.org/WAICENT/FAOINFO/ECONOMIC/GIEWS/ENGLISH/FO/index.htm
-AF
Article found at :
http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=21736
Original article :
http://www.gwynnedyer.net/articles/Gwynne%20
Dyer%20article_%20%20Feeding%20the%20World.txt
LATIN AMERICA:
Leading the Developing World in Preschool Education
by Daniela Estrada
IPSnews.net
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35272
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
SANTIAGO, Oct 27 (IPS) - Latin America is the developing region that has made the most progress in early childhood education, although improvement has been uneven, says the new global monitoring report on Education for All (EFA) 2007.
"The region has not progressed homogeneously. Our average for (preschool) education is 1.7 years, but there are countries with an average of 3.5 years, like Cuba, and others with five months, like the Bahamas. Chile is in the middle," Ana Luiza Machado, head of the Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), told IPS.
Latin America and the Caribbean is the developing region with the highest rate of preschool enrolment, 62 percent, ahead of East Asia and the Pacific (35 percent), South and West Asia (32 percent), the Arab states (16 percent) and sub-Saharan Africa (12 percent).
The three main challenges in the region are increasing equality -- in other words, reaching the most marginalised sectors; improving quality, since access alone is not enough; and broadening social responsibility, because governments cannot do it completely on their own, Machado said.
The EFA global monitoring report, issued annually since 2002, is commissioned by UNESCO from a team of independent experts.
Education for All has six goals, approved by 164 countries at the World Education Forum held in Dakar, Senegal in 2000, which are to be fulfilled by 2015, as are the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
The 2007 report, titled "Strong foundations: early childhood care and education", focuses on the first EFA goal, which calls on governments to "expand and improve comprehensive early childhood care and education, especially for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged children," although it also assesses progress made on the other five goals.
The authors specifically examined Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) programmes, which focus on supporting "children's survival, growth, development and learning -- including health, nutrition and hygiene, and cognitive, social, physical and emotional development -- from birth to entry into primary school in formal, informal and non-formal settings."
Worldwide, more than 100 million children under the age of five die every year, and half of the deaths are due to preventable transmissible diseases. Out of every 1,000 children born in recent years, 86 will not make it past their fifth birthday.
Given their positive effects on health, nutrition and scholastic achievement, ECCE programmes are a good investment in human capital, the report says, because the competencies acquired in early education are the foundation for all subsequent learning.
The short and long term benefits of these programmes make them a cost-efficient strategy to reduce poverty and compensate for disadvantages, the document adds.
"One dollar invested in preschool education generates 17 dollars in future benefits," Machado said at the presentation of the report Thursday in Santiago, held simultaneously with the world launch in New York.
The report indicates that successful examples of ECCE include programmes for supporting parents, teaching in the children's mother tongues, encouraging gender equality, early language development, integrating children with disabilities into ordinary schools, and transition to primary school.
Machado particularly pointed to the Cuban programme "Educate Your Children", which has already been replicated in several countries of the region, and teaches mothers, fathers or grandparents how to personally educate the small children in their charge.
In addition, the report highlights the "Community Homes" programme from Colombia, which supports "community mothers" -- women who take care of neighbours' children in their homes during working hours, and provide them with meals and recreation.
"The report also shows that Chile has made a lot of progress, so much so that President Michelle Bachelet was invited to the presentation in New York. As she was unable to attend, she made a video to encourage other developing countries to invest in preschool education," the UNESCO official said.
"Chile has a support system based on preschool education, but there is still a great deal to do, especially in reaching out to the poorer, rural and indigenous populations," the expert said.
Bachelet's video was viewed in both Santiago and New York. In it she said that Chile is "a country that has taken to heart the words of Gabriela Mistral, our great poet and educator, that 'the future of the children is always today.'"
On Oct. 13, President Bachelet launched a comprehensive childhood protection system, called "Chile Grows with You", which incorporates the main recommendations of the Presidential Advisory Council on Early Childhood Policy Reform, established by the president shortly after she took office in March.
"Chile Grows with You" is the first plan of its kind in Latin America, and is based on a model implemented in the United Kingdom, Planning Minister Clarisa Hardy told IPS this week. Her ministry is in charge of coordinating the programme. The main goal of this government initiative is to provide protection for children from birth until their entry into the educational system, watching out for their rights and providing care during this critical phase of their development.
This early childhood protection system will be introduced gradually in 100 municipalities in the country from Jan. 1, 2007, rising to 250 in 2008 and the rest in 2009. Early next year, draft laws will be submitted to Congress to implement the plan.
The programme will provide daycare and playschools for the children of mothers who are working, looking for work or studying, in lower income families, and also for children with special needs. Overall, six out of 10 children will benefit.
There will also be new legislation on adoption, and two funds will be created so that civil society organisations can actively participate in childhood development, through sports, culture, and community infrastructure and equipment.
A website and an observatory on early childhood will also be created, in order to monitor the protection system. (END/2006)
Warships deploy around S. Arabia oil facilities
Britain cites al-Qaida threat; U.S. naval forces on heightened alert
by The Associated Press
Updated: 11:06 a.m. PT Oct 27, 2006
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15442751/
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - Coalition naval forces in the Persian Gulf are on watch for possible terror threats to oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Western naval officials said Friday.
A British navy official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, said a threat from al-Qaida last month to target gulf oil terminals had resulted in stepped-up security and vigilance at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal, as well as a refinery in Bahrain.
Oil exports in the region were proceeding as normal, he said.
The British navy, part of the Italian-led Coalition Task Force 152 that patrols international waters off the Ras Tanura terminal, sent an e-mail warning on Friday asking merchant shippers in the region of Bahrain and eastern Saudi Arabia to be on alert for suspicious vessels or other activity.
Task Force 152 also contains ships from French, U.S., German and other navies.
The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, said it was aware of the British warning.
“We support the recommendation that commercial mariners be especially vigilant while transiting the gulf,” Lt. Cmdr. Charles Brown said Friday in a statement e-mailed to The Associated Press.
Brown acknowledged the security measures but referred to them as “routine.”
“Coalition forces are taking prudent, precautionary measures and focusing maritime security operations in the gulf on these possible (al-Qaida) threats,” he said.
“These operations are nothing new. Coalition maritime forces routinely conduct maritime security operations in the gulf,” he added.
'The Saudis are very protective'
The British official said the coalition ships were confining their patrols to international waters and had not been invited by Saudi Arabia to patrol inside its territorial waters near the terminal.
“The Saudis are very protective of their patch,” the British official in Dubai said, describing the patrols as normal naval operations that had been under way since 2002, albeit on a heightened state for the past month.
Ras Tanura, just north of the Saudi oil capital of Dhahran, is the world’s largest offshore oil loading facility, with a capacity of 6 million barrels per day. Bahrain, an independent island kingdom, lies in the gulf just off the Saudi east coast.
In February, al-Qaida-linked car bombers attacked the Abqaiq oil processing plant near Dammam, Saudi Arabia, killing two guards. The attack did no damage to the facility but sent oil prices briefly spiking up $2 a barrel.
On Friday, light sweet crude for December delivery fell 10 cents to $60.26 a barrel.
© 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
China National RFID Industrialization Base Opens In Zhangjiang
by China ARFID News
October 30, 2006
http://www.chinarfidnews.com/index.php/2
006/10/30/china-national-rfid-industrialization-base-opens-in-zhangjiang/
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
China’s first National RFID Industrial Zone has formally opened in the Zhangjiang area of Shanghai.
The zone will be the largest RFID industry congregation center in China with an annual production capacity of 500 billion tags, and it will account for more than one-third of the market share within China’s domestic market.
The zone will play host to a variety of RFID applications and services. In the future, the entire pork processing system in Shanghai–from the birth of pigs to the pork sales at the market–will be monitored by the tags so consumers can monitor the quality of their purchased products.
In addition, RFID technology will be applied at shopping malls to provide more convenience for the retailing sector. A representative from Ministry of Science and Technology says that RFID is further expected to play a big role in the 2010 Shanghai Expo.
[This superhighway is the brainchild of the global elite who wish all nations to fold into corporations, erasing national boundaries and facilitating their political and economic dominance of the planet.—CB]
Economic ties to U.S. riding super highway
By Don
Maroc
Oct 25 2006
http://www.cowichannewsleader.com/portals-code/list.cgi?paper=9&cat=48&id=757217&mo
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
A month ago, at the luxurious Banff Springs Hotel, Stockwell Day, John P. Manley, Gordon O’Connor, Peter Lougheed, and Anne McLennan — all past and present ministers in Canadian governments — met a couple of dozen high-ranking government and corporate officials from the U.S. and Mexico to discuss the formation of a North American Union.
The three-day meeting — including people as prominent as U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld — was about pushing the NAFTA free trade agreement to the next level, the commercial, financial, and monetary integration of Canada, the U.S., and Mexico.
Don’t blame this sell-out of Canada on Stephen Harper. On March 23, 2005, in Waco, Texas, then Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, standing beside Presidents George W. Bush of the U.S. and Vincente Fox of Mexico, announced their agreement to form the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America.
In spite of that announcement corporate and political leaders now deny any agreement at all, it was just an arrangement for continued dialogue.
Mimicking the Liberals, Harper met during March 2006, in Cancun, Mexico, with Bush and Fox to celebrate the still-being-born North American Union which would eliminate borders and strip Canada down to U.S. non-regulation of commerce, non-protection of the environment, less-than-minimal social safety net and health care and a further destruction of union wages and working conditions.
The first massive project being built is the NAFTA Super Highway. A new corporation, Kansas City (Missouri) Smart Port, Inc., will oversee the construction and operation of a super “port†1,200 kilometres from the ocean.
The NAFTA Super Highway will start at the Mexican port of Lazaro Cardenas in southern Mexico where the flood of Chinese-made goods will be loaded onto Kansas City Southern Railway de Mexico and shipped non-stop to Kansas City.
Loading Chinese shipping containers onto U.S. rail cars in Mexico will by-pass the expensive longshoremen in Los Angeles and Long Beach, California.
A portion of the Kansas City port will be declared Mexican territory and custom inspections will take place there instead of at the border.
Another non-profit corporation, North America’s Super Corridor Coalition, has the job of building an “international, integrated and secure, multi-modal transportation system†from Lazaro Cardenas through Kansas City and up to Winnipeg. This will allow Mexican trucks to haul sealed shipping containers along a 12-lane superhighway through the heartland of North America, from Mexico to Canada.
Canada is plugging its oil and natural gas, its water and grain, minerals and lumber, not to mention Canadian consumers, into the North American distribution system dominated by the U.S.
Our experience with NAFTA judicial panels, meat inspection and Mad Cow disease, the Afghan war, and the softwood lumber deal should convince us that Canada will be on the short end of the NAFTA Super Highway.
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How Long Can the World Feed Itself? - By Gwynne Dyer, Energy bulletin